To be honest, I've kind of checked out at this point. The Seahawks’ chances of winning are pretty high no matter what they do. Given that, playing conservatively and attempting a field goal isn't a bad idea.
Here's the full breakdown of my calculations:
|Option||Chance of converting||
Chance of winningBefore play
|Field goal try31 yard kick (est.)||95%||>99%||>99%||-|
|Go for it4th and 2, opp. 14||55%||>99%||>99%||-|
|Field goal try||80% of the time|
|Go for it||20% of the time|
Steven Hauschka 33 yard field goal attempt is GOOD. Steven Hauschka 33 yard field goal attempt is GOOD.
To estimate a team’s chances of winning, I use a mathematical model that accounts for a whole lot of variables — including the difference in score, the time remaining in the game, and the number of timeouts each team has left. On top of that, I have models for the likelihood that a team makes a field goal and the likelihood that it will convert a first down.
By combining all of this information, I can come up with the best decision a team can make, according to math.
If you want even more details about the numbers behind my decisions, my full model is available on GitHub. Help make me better!