Week 3, Redskins at Giants
4th-and-11, 6:33 remaining in 3rd quarter, Down by 2
The Giants attempted a field goal on a 4th-and-11 on their 11. The NYT 4th Down Bot would definitely have punted.
If you disagree

The coach’s decision to attempt a field goal is the right call if you think your chances of making the kick are greater than 34 percent. But based on my analysis of over 13,000 field goal attempts since 2001, I give the average kicker only a 0 percent chance to make a kick from this distance in a outdoor stadium.

Here's the full breakdown of my calculations:

Option Chance of converting
Chance of winning
Before play
After play Change
Punt 39% 39% -
Go for it4th and 11, own 11 23% 39% 35% –4%
Field goal tryA really, really long kick <1% 39% 29% –10%
My decision in context

Along with some circuitry to come up with a win probability for every game situation, all you need to figure out what you should do next is an estimate of how likely you are to make a field goal or convert a first down.

My estimates for these are based on the results of thousands of similar plays, but you may think you're smarter than I am. This chart shows you how changing those estimates would change my recommendation.

What to do on 4th-and-11 on own 11
Down by 2 with 6:33 remaining in the 3rd quarter
How important was this call?

If the coach had punted instead of attempting a field goal, I estimate the Giants’ chances of winning would be about 39 percent instead of 29 percent.

What coaches usually do
Punt >99% of the time
Go for it -
Field goal try -
Based on about 1,329 fourth downs in similar situations since 2001.
What happened

Josh Brown 29 yard field goal attempt is GOOD. Josh Brown 29 yard field goal attempt is GOOD.

Where did these numbers come from?

To estimate a team’s chances of winning, I use a mathematical model that accounts for a whole lot of variables — including the difference in score, the time remaining in the game, and the number of timeouts each team has left. On top of that, I have models for the likelihood that a team makes a field goal and the likelihood that it will convert a first down.

By combining all of this information, I can come up with the best decision a team can make, according to math.

If you want even more details about the numbers behind my decisions, my full model is available on GitHub. Help make me better!