Week 1, Rams at 49ers
4th-and-10, 2:41 remaining in 4th quarter, Down by 28
The Rams went for it on a 4th-and-10 on the 49ers’ 24. It doesn’t matter to NYT 4th Down Bot.

No matter what happens on this play, the Rams will almost certainly lose the game. In situations like these, what happens on this down is basically inconsequential, so there's no real recommendation here. (In fact, I’m taking a break from the game for a spot of Earl Grey.) Here’s the breakdown for the Rams’ scenario.

Option Chance of converting
Chance of winning
Before play
After play Change
Field goal try41 yard kick (est.) 82% <1% <1% -
Go for it4th and 10, opp. 24 29% <1% <1% -
Punt <1% <1% -
What coaches usually do
Field goal try 59% of the time
Punt 21% of the time
Go for it 19% of the time
Based on about 1,431 fourth downs in similar situations since 2001.
What happened

Case Keenum rush to the right for 5 yards to the SF19. Case Keenum rush to the right for 5 yards to the SF19.

Where did these numbers come from?

To estimate a team’s chances of winning, I use a mathematical model that accounts for a whole lot of variables — including the difference in score, the time remaining in the game, and the number of timeouts each team has left. On top of that, I have models for the likelihood that a team makes a field goal and the likelihood that it will convert a first down.

By combining all of this information, I can come up with the best decision a team can make, according to math.

If you want even more details about the numbers behind my decisions, my full model is available on GitHub. Help make me better!