Week 16, Bears at Bucs
4th-and-1, 8:40 remaining in 1st quarter, Tied
The Bucs punted on a 4th-and-1 on their 40. The NYT 4th Down bot is totally on board, although going for it would have been fine, too.
If you disagree

I lean slightly towards punting, but I don’t have strong feelings here – my numbers tell me that either punting or going for it could be the best play. Specifically, going for it would be the right call if you think the Bucs’ chances of converting on fourth down are greater than 70 percent. (Based on my analysis, I’d give the Bucs a 67 percent chance to get a first down here.)

Here's the full breakdown of my calculations:

Option Chance of converting
Chance of winning
Before play
After play Change
Punt 62% 62% -
Go for it4th and 1, own 40 67% 62% 61% –1%
Field goal tryA really, really long kick <1% 62% 51% –11%
My decision in context

Along with some circuitry to come up with a win probability for every game situation, all you need to figure out what you should do next is an estimate of how likely you are to make a field goal or convert a first down.

My estimates for these are based on the results of thousands of similar plays, but you may think you're smarter than I am. This chart shows you how changing those estimates would change my recommendation.

What to do on 4th-and-1 on own 40
Tied with 8:40 remaining in the 1st quarter
What coaches usually do
Punt 85% of the time
Go for it 15% of the time
Field goal try -
Based on about 1,364 fourth downs in similar situations since 2001.
What happened

Jacob Schum punts for 60 yards to Chi0.

Where did these numbers come from?

To estimate a team’s chances of winning, I use a mathematical model that accounts for a whole lot of variables — including the difference in score, the time remaining in the game, and the number of timeouts each team has left. On top of that, I have models for the likelihood that a team makes a field goal and the likelihood that it will convert a first down.

By combining all of this information, I can come up with the best decision a team can make, according to math.

If you want even more details about the numbers behind my decisions, my full model is available on GitHub. Help make me better!