Week 15, Falcons at Jaguars
4th-and-7, 8:56 remaining in 1st quarter, Up by 7
The Falcons went for it on a 4th-and-7 on their 44. The NYT 4th Down Bot would have punted.
If you disagree

The coach’s decision to go for it is the right call if you think the Falcons’ chances of converting on fourth down are greater than 63 percent. But based on my analysis, I’d give the Falcons only a 39 percent chance to get a first down here.

Here's the full breakdown of my calculations:

Option Chance of converting
Chance of winning
Before play
After play Change
Punt 66% 66% -
Go for it4th and 7, own 44 39% 66% 63% –3%
Field goal try73 yard kick (est.) <1% 66% 56% –10%
My decision in context

Along with some circuitry to come up with a win probability for every game situation, all you need to figure out what you should do next is an estimate of how likely you are to make a field goal or convert a first down.

My estimates for these are based on the results of thousands of similar plays, but you may think you're smarter than I am. This chart shows you how changing those estimates would change my recommendation.

What to do on 4th-and-7 on own 44
Up by 7 with 8:56 remaining in the 1st quarter
How important was this call?

If the coach had punted instead of going for it, I estimate the Falcons’ chances of winning would be about 66 percent instead of 63 percent.

What coaches usually do
Punt 98% of the time
Go for it 2% of the time
Field goal try -
Based on about 1,157 fourth downs in similar situations since 2001.
What happened

Eric Weems rush to the left for 4 yards to the Atl48. Tackled by Peyton Thompson.

Where did these numbers come from?

To estimate a team’s chances of winning, I use a mathematical model that accounts for a whole lot of variables — including the difference in score, the time remaining in the game, and the number of timeouts each team has left. On top of that, I have models for the likelihood that a team makes a field goal and the likelihood that it will convert a first down.

By combining all of this information, I can come up with the best decision a team can make, according to math.

If you want even more details about the numbers behind my decisions, my full model is available on GitHub. Help make me better!