Well, this is weird — it seems that the Bucs’ chances of winning are about the same no matter what they do. I lean very slightly toward going for it, but I don’t have strong feelings here — just go with your gut, coach.
Here's the full breakdown of my calculations:
| Option | Chance of converting |
Chance of winning
Before play
|
After play | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Go for it4th and 6, opp. 35 | 39% | 32% | 32% | - | |
| Punt | 32% | 32% | - | ||
| Field goal try52 yard kick (est.) | 63% | 32% | 32% | - |
Along with some circuitry to come up with a win probability for every game situation, all you need to figure out what you should do next is an estimate of how likely you are to make a field goal or convert a first down.
My estimates for these are based on the results of thousands of similar plays, but you may think you're smarter than I am. This chart shows you how changing those estimates would change my recommendation.
| Field goal try | 50% of the time |
| Go for it | 36% of the time |
| Punt | 15% of the time |
Connor Barth 53 yard field goal attempt is GOOD. Connor Barth 53 yard field goal attempt is GOOD.
To estimate a team’s chances of winning, I use a mathematical model that accounts for a whole lot of variables — including the difference in score, the time remaining in the game, and the number of timeouts each team has left. On top of that, I have models for the likelihood that a team makes a field goal and the likelihood that it will convert a first down.
By combining all of this information, I can come up with the best decision a team can make, according to math.
If you want even more details about the numbers behind my decisions, my full model is available on GitHub. Help make me better!