Week 14, Colts at Jaguars
4th-and-1, 2:00 remaining in 4th quarter, Up by 28
The Jaguars went for it on a 4th-and-1 on the Colts’ 1. It doesn’t matter to NYT 4th Down Bot.

No matter what happens on this play, the Jaguars will almost certainly win the game. In situations like these, what happens on this down is basically inconsequential, so there's no real recommendation here. (In fact, I’m taking a break from the game for a spot of Earl Grey.) Here’s the breakdown for the Jaguars’ scenario.

Option Chance of converting
Chance of winning
Before play
After play Change
Go for it4th and 1, opp. 1 51% >99% >99% -
Field goal try18 yard kick (est.) >99% >99% >99% -
Punt >99% >99% -
What coaches usually do

Based on about 991 fourth downs in similar situations since 2001.

What happened

Blake Bortles rush up the middle for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN. Blake Bortles rush up the middle for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN.

Where did these numbers come from?

To estimate a team’s chances of winning, I use a mathematical model that accounts for a whole lot of variables — including the difference in score, the time remaining in the game, and the number of timeouts each team has left. On top of that, I have models for the likelihood that a team makes a field goal and the likelihood that it will convert a first down.

By combining all of this information, I can come up with the best decision a team can make, according to math.

If you want even more details about the numbers behind my decisions, my full model is available on GitHub. Help make me better!