Week 13, Colts at Steelers
4th-and-7, 14:10 remaining in 3rd quarter, Down by 11
The Colts punted on a 4th-and-7 on their 23. The NYT 4th Down bot thinks that’s a great idea, although going for it would have been fine, too.
If you disagree

I lean slightly towards going for it, but I don’t have strong feelings here – my numbers tell me that either going for it or punting could be the best play. Specifically, punting would be the right call if you think the Colts’ chances of converting on fourth down are less than 37 percent. (Based on my analysis, I’d give the Colts a 39 percent chance to get a first down here.)

Here's the full breakdown of my calculations:

Option Chance of converting
Chance of winning
Before play
After play Change
Go for it4th and 7, own 23 39% 5% 5% -
Punt 5% 5% -
Field goal tryA really, really long kick <1% 5% 3% –2%
My decision in context

Along with some circuitry to come up with a win probability for every game situation, all you need to figure out what you should do next is an estimate of how likely you are to make a field goal or convert a first down.

My estimates for these are based on the results of thousands of similar plays, but you may think you're smarter than I am. This chart shows you how changing those estimates would change my recommendation.

What to do on 4th-and-7 on own 23
Down by 11 with 14:10 remaining in the 3rd quarter
What coaches usually do
Punt 96% of the time
Go for it 4% of the time
Field goal try -
Based on about 1,666 fourth downs in similar situations since 2001.
What happened

Pat McAfee punts for 55 yards to Pit22. Pat McAfee punts for 55 yards to Pit22.

Where did these numbers come from?

To estimate a team’s chances of winning, I use a mathematical model that accounts for a whole lot of variables — including the difference in score, the time remaining in the game, and the number of timeouts each team has left. On top of that, I have models for the likelihood that a team makes a field goal and the likelihood that it will convert a first down.

By combining all of this information, I can come up with the best decision a team can make, according to math.

If you want even more details about the numbers behind my decisions, my full model is available on GitHub. Help make me better!