Week 13, Panthers at Saints
4th-and-10, 0:15 remaining in 4th quarter, Down by 3
The Saints went for it on a 4th-and-10 on the 50. The NYT 4th Down Bot agrees.

In this situation, the numbers are pretty clear: For the Saints to have any chance of winning, they have to go for it. A decision so easy, a human could make it.

Here's the full breakdown of my calculations:

Option Chance of converting
Chance of winning
Before play
After play Change
Go for it4th and 10, the 50 28% <1% 12% +12%
Field goal try67 yard kick (est.) <1% <1% <1% -
Punt <1% <1% -
My decision in context

Along with some circuitry to come up with a win probability for every game situation, all you need to figure out what you should do next is an estimate of how likely you are to make a field goal or convert a first down.

My estimates for these are based on the results of thousands of similar plays, but you may think you're smarter than I am. This chart shows you how changing those estimates would change my recommendation.

What to do on 4th-and-10 on the 50
Down by 3 with 0:15 remaining in the 4th quarter
What coaches usually do

Based on about 1,975 fourth downs in similar situations since 2001.

What happened

Drew Brees incomplete pass to the right intended for Brandin Cooks. Drew Brees incomplete pass to the right intended for Brandin Cooks.

Where did these numbers come from?

To estimate a team’s chances of winning, I use a mathematical model that accounts for a whole lot of variables — including the difference in score, the time remaining in the game, and the number of timeouts each team has left. On top of that, I have models for the likelihood that a team makes a field goal and the likelihood that it will convert a first down.

By combining all of this information, I can come up with the best decision a team can make, according to math.

If you want even more details about the numbers behind my decisions, my full model is available on GitHub. Help make me better!