To be honest, I've kind of checked out at this point. The Saints’ chances of winning are pretty high no matter what they do. Given that, playing conservatively and punting isn't a bad idea.
Here's the full breakdown of my calculations:
| Option | Chance of converting |
Chance of winning
Before play
|
After play | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punt | >99% | >99% | - | ||
| Go for it4th and 5, own 46 | 44% | >99% | >99% | - | |
| Field goal try71 yard kick (est.) | <1% | >99% | 99% | - |
| Punt | 98% of the time |
| Go for it | 2% of the time |
| Field goal try | - |
Thomas Morstead punts for 41 yards to Ind13.
To estimate a team’s chances of winning, I use a mathematical model that accounts for a whole lot of variables — including the difference in score, the time remaining in the game, and the number of timeouts each team has left. On top of that, I have models for the likelihood that a team makes a field goal and the likelihood that it will convert a first down.
By combining all of this information, I can come up with the best decision a team can make, according to math.
If you want even more details about the numbers behind my decisions, my full model is available on GitHub. Help make me better!