The coach’s decision to go for it is the right call if you think the Texans’ chances of converting on fourth down are greater than 77 percent. But based on my analysis, I’d give the Texans only a 67 percent chance to get a first down here.
Here's the full breakdown of my calculations:
|Option||Chance of converting||
Chance of winningBefore play
|Go for it4th and 1, opp. 48||67%||55%||54%||–1%|
|Field goal try65 yard kick (est.)||<1%||55%||46%||–9%|
Along with some circuitry to come up with a win probability for every game situation, all you need to figure out what you should do next is an estimate of how likely you are to make a field goal or convert a first down.
My estimates for these are based on the results of thousands of similar plays, but you may think you're smarter than I am. This chart shows you how changing those estimates would change my recommendation.
If the coach had punted instead of going for it, I estimate the Texans’ chances of winning would be about 56 percent instead of 54 percent.
|Punt||85% of the time|
|Go for it||15% of the time|
|Field goal try||-|
Brian Hoyer pass to the left to DeAndre Hopkins for 8 yards to the Jax40. Tackled by Davon House.
To estimate a team’s chances of winning, I use a mathematical model that accounts for a whole lot of variables — including the difference in score, the time remaining in the game, and the number of timeouts each team has left. On top of that, I have models for the likelihood that a team makes a field goal and the likelihood that it will convert a first down.
By combining all of this information, I can come up with the best decision a team can make, according to math.
If you want even more details about the numbers behind my decisions, my full model is available on GitHub. Help make me better!