Week 6, Bengals at Bills
4th-and-6, 1:00 remaining in 3rd quarter, Down by 17
The Bills punted on a 4th-and-6 on their 24. The NYT 4th Down bot concurs, although going for it would have been fine, too.
If you disagree

I lean slightly towards going for it, but I don’t have strong feelings here – my numbers tell me that either going for it or punting could be the best play. Specifically, punting would be the right call if you think the Bills’ chances of converting on fourth down are less than 41 percent. (Based on my analysis, I’d give the Bills a 42 percent chance to get a first down here.)

Here's the full breakdown of my calculations:

Option Chance of converting
Chance of winning
Before play
After play Change
Go for it4th and 6, own 24 42% 3% 3% -
Punt 3% 3% -
Field goal tryA really, really long kick <1% 3% 2% –1%
My decision in context

Along with some circuitry to come up with a win probability for every game situation, all you need to figure out what you should do next is an estimate of how likely you are to make a field goal or convert a first down.

My estimates for these are based on the results of thousands of similar plays, but you may think you're smarter than I am. This chart shows you how changing those estimates would change my recommendation.

What to do on 4th-and-6 on own 24
Down by 17 with 1:00 remaining in the 3rd quarter
What coaches usually do
Punt 96% of the time
Go for it 4% of the time
Field goal try -
Based on about 1,666 fourth downs in similar situations since 2001.
What happened

Colton Schmidt punts for 47 yards to Cin29.

Where did these numbers come from?

To estimate a team’s chances of winning, I use a mathematical model that accounts for a whole lot of variables — including the difference in score, the time remaining in the game, and the number of timeouts each team has left. On top of that, I have models for the likelihood that a team makes a field goal and the likelihood that it will convert a first down.

By combining all of this information, I can come up with the best decision a team can make, according to math.

If you want even more details about the numbers behind my decisions, my full model is available on GitHub. Help make me better!