Week 2, Dolphins at Jaguars
4th-and-3, 3:06 remaining in 4th quarter, Tied
The Jaguars punted on a 4th-and-3 on the Dolphins’ 48. The NYT 4th Down Bot would have gone for it.
If you disagree

The coach’s decision to punt is the right call if you think the Jaguars’ chances of converting on fourth down are less than 42 percent. But based on my analysis, I’d give the Jaguars a 49 percent chance to get a first down here.

Here's the full breakdown of my calculations:

Option Chance of converting
Chance of winning
Before play
After play Change
Go for it4th and 3, opp. 48 49% 51% 52% +1%
Punt 51% 50% –1%
Field goal try65 yard kick (est.) <1% 51% 41% –10%
My decision in context

Along with some circuitry to come up with a win probability for every game situation, all you need to figure out what you should do next is an estimate of how likely you are to make a field goal or convert a first down.

My estimates for these are based on the results of thousands of similar plays, but you may think you're smarter than I am. This chart shows you how changing those estimates would change my recommendation.

What to do on 4th-and-3 on opp. 48
Tied with 3:06 remaining in the 4th quarter
How important was this call?

If the coach had gone for it instead of punting, I estimate the Jaguars’ chances of winning would be about 52 percent instead of 50 percent.

What coaches usually do
Punt 85% of the time
Go for it 15% of the time
Field goal try -
Based on about 1,364 fourth downs in similar situations since 2001.
What happened

Bryan Anger punts for 40 yards to Mia8.

Where did these numbers come from?

To estimate a team’s chances of winning, I use a mathematical model that accounts for a whole lot of variables — including the difference in score, the time remaining in the game, and the number of timeouts each team has left. On top of that, I have models for the likelihood that a team makes a field goal and the likelihood that it will convert a first down.

By combining all of this information, I can come up with the best decision a team can make, according to math.

If you want even more details about the numbers behind my decisions, my full model is available on GitHub. Help make me better!