Week 2, Seahawks at Packers
4th-and-3, 2:00 remaining in 4th quarter, Up by 7
The Packers attempted a field goal on a 4th-and-3 on the Seahawks’ 3. The NYT 4th Down bot was thinking the same thing, although going for it would have been fine, too.
If you disagree

I lean slightly towards attempting a field goal, but I don’t have strong feelings here – my numbers tell me that either attempting a field goal or going for it could be the best play. Specifically, going for it would be the right call if you think the Packers’ chances of converting on fourth down are at least 47 percent. (Based on my analysis, I’d give the Packers a 42 percent chance to get a first down here.)

Here's the full breakdown of my calculations:

Option Chance of converting
Chance of winning
Before play
After play Change
Field goal try20 yard kick (est.) 99% 90% 90% -
Go for it4th and 3, opp. 3 42% 90% 89% –1%
Punt 90% 82% –8%
My decision in context

Along with some circuitry to come up with a win probability for every game situation, all you need to figure out what you should do next is an estimate of how likely you are to make a field goal or convert a first down.

My estimates for these are based on the results of thousands of similar plays, but you may think you're smarter than I am. This chart shows you how changing those estimates would change my recommendation.

What to do on 4th-and-3 on opp. 3
Up by 7 with 2:00 remaining in the 4th quarter
What coaches usually do

Based on about 991 fourth downs in similar situations since 2001.

What happened

Mason Crosby 21 yard field goal attempt is GOOD.

Where did these numbers come from?

To estimate a team’s chances of winning, I use a mathematical model that accounts for a whole lot of variables — including the difference in score, the time remaining in the game, and the number of timeouts each team has left. On top of that, I have models for the likelihood that a team makes a field goal and the likelihood that it will convert a first down.

By combining all of this information, I can come up with the best decision a team can make, according to math.

If you want even more details about the numbers behind my decisions, my full model is available on GitHub. Help make me better!