Week 1, Titans at Bucs
4th-and-17, 1:02 remaining in 3rd quarter, Up by 35
The Titans punted on a 4th-and-17 on the Bucs’ 40. It doesn’t matter to NYT 4th Down Bot.

No matter what happens on this play, the Titans will almost certainly win the game. In situations like these, what happens on this down is basically inconsequential, so there's no real recommendation here. (In fact, I’m taking a break from the game for a spot of Earl Grey.) Here’s the breakdown for the Titans’ scenario.

Option Chance of converting
Chance of winning
Before play
After play Change
Punt >99% >99% -
Go for it4th and 17, opp. 40 10% >99% >99% -
Field goal try57 yard kick (est.) 22% >99% >99% -
What coaches usually do
Field goal try 64% of the time
Punt 32% of the time
Go for it 5% of the time
Based on about 1,135 fourth downs in similar situations since 2001.
What happened

Brett Kern punts for 38 yards to TB2.

Where did these numbers come from?

To estimate a team’s chances of winning, I use a mathematical model that accounts for a whole lot of variables — including the difference in score, the time remaining in the game, and the number of timeouts each team has left. On top of that, I have models for the likelihood that a team makes a field goal and the likelihood that it will convert a first down.

By combining all of this information, I can come up with the best decision a team can make, according to math.

If you want even more details about the numbers behind my decisions, my full model is available on GitHub. Help make me better!